Brent Back to $100 — Houthis Rattle the Oil Market
The Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers, Encelia and Layla, with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones after the vessels violated the group's declared naval blockade in the Red Sea; a major fire broke out on one of the ships. Brent crude gained more than 8.5% over the week, approaching $105-110 per barrel, while spare capacity at both OPEC and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down to 40-year lows. The Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have simultaneously turned into minefields — the market is reacting with panic rather than calculation.
IRGC Strikes US Bases in Kuwait — Patriot Systems and Barracks Under Attack
Iran claimed it destroyed a Patriot air defense system, a hangar for a Reaper drone and an equipment depot at Ali Al Salem base, as well as barracks and helicopter hangars at Camp Buehring, with American service members killed and wounded. Three tankers moving along the US Navy's "safe route" through the Strait of Hormuz attempted to pass through; after an explosion hit one of them, the other two turned back and retreated. The US "safe route" turned out to be safe only up until the first explosion.
Lavrov and Rubio Meet in Manila — Weapons for Kyiv and Alaska on the Agenda
On the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, Lavrov told Rubio that further arms deliveries to Kyiv were unacceptable and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to the proposals put forward by the US in Alaska. The meeting lasted just over half an hour, with both sides agreeing to continue contacts through diplomatic channels, while Rubio himself later admitted that the talks in Anchorage had failed and that new ideas were needed. Half an hour of talks and two mutually exclusive statements afterward — ordinary diplomacy in 2026.
EU Approves Scaled-Down 21st Sanctions Package — Moscow Exchange Under Restrictions
The package covers energy, finance and cryptocurrencies: the price cap on Russian oil is frozen at $44 for a year, 32 Russian banks are banned from cross-border transactions, and the Moscow Exchange has been added to the list — though a full ban on LNG shipments and entry restrictions for participants in the special military operation did not make it into the package. The sanctions are becoming more precisely worded but softer in substance — Brussels is negotiating with itself.
Ukrainian Ports Paralyzed — Losses of Up to $10 Billion a Month
Ships have stopped calling at Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny — a decision made by shipowners themselves, not by the authorities. Losses in the agricultural sector are estimated at $2 billion a month, with total losses reaching up to $10 billion, not counting damage to the fleet and infrastructure. Grain flows are now being redirected upriver. The ports are closed not by order but by fear — which works even more reliably than any blockade.
Zelensky Ready to Fly to the US to Discuss "New Proposals" for a Settlement
Ukraine's president said there are several new American plans for ending the conflict and suggested he could visit the US within a week — the wording remains vague once again, with no specifics on the content of the proposals. "New proposals" are heard from Washington regularly — the specifics are traditionally deferred.
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