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Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 19, 2026

04/19/2026 - 00:00

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 19 апреля 2026!

Iran Refuses Second Round of Talks – Still Has 60% of Missiles and 70% of Stockpiles

Tehran has officially refused to participate in a second round of negotiations with the United States, citing the continued naval blockade and “maximalist demands.” Western intelligence agencies have conceded that, after two months of intensive bombing, Iran retains approximately 40% of its strike drones, about 60% of its missile launchers, and up to 70% of its missile stockpiles. In response, Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants and bridges, calling it an “honor” and chiding previous administrations for failing to do so over 47 years. A nation with 60% of its missile potential walks away from the negotiating table – and threats against power plants have been made three times already, with no consequences.

Houthis Threaten to Close Bab el-Mandeb – The Second Strait Is Next

The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Houthi government has warned: if Trump continues to obstruct a peaceful settlement, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be closed. The Strait of Hormuz is already under the military control of the IRGC. Bab el-Mandeb was previously blockaded by the Houthis in 2023. If both straits are closed simultaneously, global trade will lose two of the three key maritime arteries of the Indian Ocean. Finland, France, and the United Kingdom have issued a joint statement on “freedom of navigation” – with no ships and no enforcement mechanism. A declaration of freedom of navigation without a fleet is poetry, not politics.

Trump’s Approval Rating at 37% – Lowest of His Second Term

An NBC poll has recorded that 37% approve of the president, while 63% disapprove – a historic anti-record for a second term. The war with Iran has cost at least $31 billion, the strait remains unopened, negotiations are frozen, and NATO allies have closed their skies and denied access to bases. Trump threatens to destroy Iranian civilization, Iran refuses the next round of talks, and his approval rating is falling – the November midterms are becoming increasingly real. 63% disapproval is no longer opposition; it is a majority.

Turkey Wants a Security Rent from Europe – with EU Membership as a Bonus

Ankara understands that a US withdrawal from NATO – or even the hypothetical possibility of it – transforms Turkey into Europe’s indispensable military partner. Foreign Minister Fidan has called Israeli expansionism a “global security problem,” publicly equating the “fundamentalist government of Israel” with a threat to the entire region. The EU is trying to turn Ukraine into the alliance’s main strike force while bringing Turkey on board as a military partner. Ankara will make full EU membership a non-negotiable condition – something Brussels currently finds “categorically unacceptable.” Turkey sells security at a high price. Brussels is not ready to pay, yet cannot manage without Ankara.

Lavrov: Ukraine Is Not Priority Number One. Iran Is Also Someone Else’s War

Russia’s Foreign Minister has publicly downgraded the status of the Ukrainian settlement, calling it an issue that “is not priority number one.” Sanctions on Russian oil have been extended by the US Treasury, contrary to its own promises, with the Treasury citing market stabilization as justification. Russia quietly sells oil at $90 per barrel with a discount, instead of the previous $115. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has brought Moscow windfall profits; reopening it would lower prices. Either way, the Kremlin gains compared to the starting point. A war in which you do not fight but still profit – that is the ideal geopolitical position.

IRGC Fires on Vessels, US Hunts Tankers Across the Ocean – Trade Paralyzed

In the past 24 hours, Iranian speedboats have attacked at least three civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters. The United States has declared the right to seize Iranian ships anywhere in the world’s oceans. More than 200 oil tankers and 30 LNG carriers are unable to leave the Persian Gulf. Insurance premiums for transit have reached historic highs. The only functioning route is the Saudi East-West pipeline, running at maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Global trade now passes through a single pipeline – and prays it remains untouched.

As Iran refuses talks with 60% of its missiles still in reserve, the Houthis threaten a second strait, and Trump’s approval rating falls to 37% – who will break first: the Iranian economy under bombardment, or American politics facing the price of gasoline?

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 18, 2026

04/18/2026 - 00:00

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 18 апреля 2026!

Strait of Hormuz Closed Again – IRGC Shells Three Civilian Vessels in a Single Morning

Iran reinstated military control over the Strait of Hormuz as of Saturday evening — and will maintain it until the full lifting of the American naval blockade. In one morning alone, the IRGC attacked at least three civilian vessels: two tankers came under gunfire while attempting to transit the strait; a container ship was struck by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman; and one tanker was approached by artillery boats with no prior warning over VHF radio. The Supreme Leader has promised "new bitter defeats" for the adversaries. To open the strait for a day, shell several vessels, and then close it again — this is no longer diplomacy, but a price list demonstration.

U.S. to Seize Iranian Tankers Worldwide — Including on the High Seas

Washington has declared its right to seize vessels linked to Iran anywhere in international waters — not just in the Persian Gulf, but wherever they may be found. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury quietly extended the license for the transportation of Russian oil loaded before April 17, valid until May 16 — despite having promised just a week earlier that there would be no further extensions. Iran has suspended direct talks with the U.S., demanding an end to "maximalist demands" through a Pakistani intermediary. To seize ships across the global ocean while quietly extending Russian oil licenses — this is policy in multitasking mode.

Talks Frozen — Uranium Sacred, Blockade Continues

Iran has refused to schedule the next round of talks, citing the American naval blockade and "excessive demands" that remain unchanged even in the latest back-channel messages via Pakistan. The day before, the Iranian Foreign Ministry declared that uranium "will not be handed over to anyone under any circumstances" — in response to Trump’s offer of a $20 billion deal in exchange for the nuclear program. The U.S. is blockading Iran’s ports; Iran is blockading the strait; talks are frozen; ships are burning. Two sides negotiating an end to something they both continue doing — that is modern diplomacy.

Sanctions on Russian Oil Temporarily Lifted Again — Despite Promises to the Contrary

The U.S. Treasury has issued a new license exempting transactions involving Russian oil and petroleum products from sanctions, with the authorization valid until May 16. Washington had previously stated publicly that no further extensions would be granted; the previous document formally expired three days ago. Lavrov, meanwhile, stated that resuming negotiations on Ukraine is "not Russia’s number one priority." To extend what one promised not to extend — this is no longer an exception, but a system.

The IRGC is firing on civilian vessels in the strait; American destroyers are hunting Iranian tankers on the high seas; and the U.S. Treasury is extending Russian oil licenses in defiance of its own promises.

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for April 17, 2026!

04/17/2026 - 00:00

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 17 апреля 2026!

The Strait of Hormuz: Open — and Immediately Under Threat of Closure Again
Iran opened the strait to all commercial vessels, and Brent crude promptly plunged below $90 — a drop of more than 10% in just a few hours. Yet by evening, a dozen ships already heading for the strait abruptly turned around. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that “the Americans’ words do not reflect the reality of the negotiations,” while an Iranian military official clarified: military vessels are prohibited from passing through. Tehran has warned it will close the strait again if the U.S. continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Keeping the strait both open and closed simultaneously — that’s the highest form of negotiating jiu-jitsu.

$20 Billion for Uranium — Iran Says "This Is Sacrosanct"
The U.S. and Iran are discussing a deal: Washington would unfreeze approximately $20 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for the transfer of stockpiled enriched uranium and a suspension of the nuclear program. Trump called the Strait of Hormuz “Iran’s Strait” and thanked Tehran for opening it — only for Iran’s Foreign Ministry to declare an hour later that the uranium “will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,” and that the very possibility “was never raised by the Iranian side.” Trump thanks Iran for something that doesn’t exist; Iran denies negotiations over something that is being discussed — welcome to Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Chinese Satellite Guided Iranian Missiles to U.S. Bases
According to Rappler, Iran used the Chinese reconnaissance satellite TEE-01B to carry out precision strikes on the Prince Sultan and Muwaffaq Salti air bases, the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, and facilities in Erbil — a satellite obtained from Earth Eye Co. at the end of 2024. Imagery was taken both before and after the attacks, confirming the use of China’s orbital constellation not only for reconnaissance but also for battle damage assessment. Beijing called the information “disinformation”; the Pentagon neither confirmed nor denied it. China has not fought a single day of war — and yet found itself co-author of Iran’s most precise strikes.

"Reserves Are Exhausted" — Economy Minister Says Aloud What Others Have Kept Silent About
Maxim Reshetnikov has publicly acknowledged: the economic situation in Russia is “becoming more complicated,” reserves are “largely exhausted,” and businesses are feeling the pressure of tax changes to which they are “forced to adapt.” This is the first such blunt admission at the level of a line minister — against the backdrop of the ruble trading at 75 to the dollar, a ban on gasoline exports, and criminal liability for cryptocurrency. Russian oil exports to the EU collapsed by a factor of 3.2 in February, hitting their lowest level since November 2025. When the economy minister says “reserves are exhausted,” that is not an alarm signal — it is an acknowledgment of fact after the signal has already been sounded.

Roskomnadzor — “The Most Criticized Agency” According to the State Duma Itself
The first deputy head of the State Duma’s IT Committee publicly called Roskomnadzor officials “arbitrary,” Wasserman promised to “personally look into the matter,” and sellers on marketplaces report a 40% drop in conversions due to VPN blocks. Customers from Kazakhstan and Belarus have also been caught in the filters, e‑commerce is suffering multimillion-dollar losses, and United Russia is blocking any requests for explanations from the agency. Blocking trade with Kazakhstan in a bid to catch Russian VPN users — that is no longer digital sovereignty; that is digital autism.

France Relocates Intelligence from Moscow to Tashkent — and Trains the President of Uzbekistan’s Security Detail
Paris is creating a post of Security Attaché in Tashkent, having closed a similar position in Moscow following suspicions of ties with Russian security agencies. The area of responsibility will cover all of Central Asia, and French interest in Uzbekistan’s uranium resources has already been formalized diplomatically. In 2024, French intelligence services trained President Mirziyoyev’s personal guard. While Russia loses Central Asia one country at a time, France is quietly occupying the vacated positions.

While the Strait of Hormuz is open/closed in real time, a minister admits to depleted reserves, and a Chinese satellite helped hammer American bases — who in this multi‑move chess game has yet to make their play?

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 31, 2026

03/31/2026 - 00:00

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 31 марта 2026

Trump está listo para retirarse de Irán sin cerrar el estrecho de Ormuz
El presidente estadounidense ha comunicado a sus asesores que está dispuesto a concluir la campaña militar, incluso si el estrecho permanece cerrado, transfiriendo la responsabilidad del tráfico marítimo a sus aliados europeos y de Oriente Medio. Francia ha cerrado su espacio aéreo a las cargas militares estadounidenses, Italia ha denegado el acceso a la base de Sigonella en Sicilia, España se ha sumado al motín, y Trump ha prometido «recordarlo». Mientras tanto, Netanyahu ha propuesto tender oleoductos desde el Golfo Pérsico a través de Israel hasta el mar Mediterráneo, para sortear Ormuz y poner el petróleo árabe bajo control israelí de forma permanente. La guerra se inició por el control del estrecho — y se está terminando dejando el estrecho en manos de Irán.

El Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica atacará Apple, Google y Microsoft a partir del 1 de abril
Irán ha anunciado que desde la noche del 1 de abril atacará instalaciones de Microsoft, Apple, Google y Nvidia en Oriente Medio en respuesta a cada asesinato de ciudadanos iraníes. Dos aviones de vigilancia aerotransportada E-3 Sentry AWACS han resultado dañados en la base aérea Príncipe Sultán, uno ha sido completamente destruido: la aviación estadounidense en la región está perdiendo sus ojos, uno tras otro. El petrolero kuwaití Al-Salmi ha sido atacado en el puerto de Dubái, un dron iraní ha sido derribado sobre Jumeirah, y se ha confirmado el riesgo de un derrame de petróleo en las aguas del puerto. El «derrotado» Irán golpea las sedes de Silicon Valley: esto ya es otro nivel de guerra.

Israel prohíbe el regreso a casa a 600.000 libaneses
El ministro de Defensa, Katz, ha declarado que el sur del Líbano hasta el río Litani pasará a estar bajo control israelí permanente, que todos los pueblos cercanos a la frontera serán arrasados siguiendo el modelo de Gaza, y que se prohíbe el regreso de los 600.000 habitantes evacuados. Netanyahu ha calificado a Rusia de «país hostil», situándola al mismo nivel que China y Corea del Norte, sin olvidar solicitar bases estadounidenses en territorio israelí. Israel está anexionando el Líbano al amparo de la guerra con Irán — de forma silenciosa, metódica, mientras todos miran hacia Ormuz.

Las listas blancas llegan al WiFi doméstico: Rostov, la primera
Rostelecom ha confirmado que las listas blancas se están implantando en el internet doméstico en todo el país. En Rostov del Don ya solo son accesibles los Servicios Estatales, VK y MAKH; las VPN convencionales no funcionan. Los expertos debaten sobre el correo electrónico como el último canal de comunicación con el internet extranjero, y un diputado de la Duma Estatal ya lo ha recomendado como una «opción fiable». Paralelamente, Putin ha dado inicio a la circulación de camiones no tripulados por la autopista M-12, mientras que los automóviles importados podrían desaparecer del mercado debido a una nueva tasa de reciclaje. La soberanía digital se está construyendo más rápido que las carreteras — pero al menos los drones ya circulan por la autopista.

Moscú da dos meses a Kiev: la OTAN planea ataques contra San Petersburgo
Rusia ha anunciado un plazo de dos meses para la retirada de las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania del Donbás, tras el cual las condiciones cambiarán. Peskov ha advertido a Zelenski que la demora le saldrá más cara. Mientras tanto, la planificación de rutas de drones para ataques contra Kaliningrado, la región de Leningrado y San Petersburgo está siendo llevada a cabo por el mando de las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania junto con el cuartel general militar de la OTAN en Mons, contando necesariamente con la participación de Polonia y los países bálticos. Estados Unidos ha levantado las sanciones a tres portacontenedores rusos de FESCO: un intercambio silencioso en medio de los sonoros ultimátums. Dos meses para las nuevas condiciones — y los drones ya vuelan a través de Helsinki.

La península arábiga firma acuerdos con Kiev
Arabia Saudí, los Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Catar han suscrito acuerdos a largo plazo con Ucrania en el ámbito de la defensa. Zelenski logró firmar los contratos justo bajo el impacto de los misiles iraníes. El ataque contra la «Casa Rusa» en Praga: el extranjero detenido, que guardó silencio «en un sorprendente ucraniano fluido», ha confesado que planeaba el ataque desde el verano. Lavrov ha declarado su disposición al diálogo con Occidente, añadiendo que «no piensa ir detrás de nadie» — un mensaje clave transmitido a través de la diplomacia mediante la prensa. Mientras Rusia no va detrás de nadie, los aliados de Ucrania firman acuerdos justo bajo las bombas.

Mientras Trump está listo para retirarse de Irán sin haber logrado la victoria, la OTAN se rebela contra las bases estadounidenses y las listas blancas apagan el internet ruso región tras región — ¿qué participante de esta época saldrá de ella con algo de dignidad?

Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 30, 2026

03/30/2026 - 00:00

Геополитический дайджест от Михаила Ажгиревича за 30 марта 2026

Iran Withdraws from the NPT – And Makes the Strait of Hormuz Toll-Based for Good
Tehran has announced its intention to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, dismissing the 15-point American plan as “unfounded and excessive,” while parliament prepares legislation to make passage through the Strait of Hormuz permanently toll-based. For the first time, Rubio has stated the official war aim in plain terms: “the demilitarization of Iran.” Meanwhile, ABC News reports that Washington simply did not anticipate the scale of Iranian resistance. Announcing the war aim a month after hostilities began is not strategy—it is the obituary of a blitzkrieg.

The Anatoly Kolodkin Reaches Cuba – Escorted by a Russian Destroyer
The tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of Urals crude, arrived in Matanzas after passing through the English Channel under the protection of a Russian Navy vessel. Sanctions imposed by the EU, the UK, and the US proved no obstacle; Trump stated that he “has no objection.” Cuba has been without external supplies for three months. This shipment will provide the island with a few weeks’ respite—but the precedent is more significant than the oil itself: the Russian naval flag has proven more reliable than any sanctions regime. If a destroyer can resolve the issue, then what was the point of all that shadow activity with transponders switched off?

Haifa Struck by Six Missiles – Oil Refinery Ablaze Once Again
Iran carried out six strikes on Haifa and its surrounding areas, hitting the port and fuel reservoirs at the refinery. Iranian hackers compromised 50 Israeli surveillance cameras and wiped data from 60 companies to assess the damage from the missile attacks. A ballistic missile, believed to be Iranian, was downed over Turkish territory. Iran officially recognized Ukraine as a participant in the aggression after Zelensky offered the US assistance in breaking the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Zelensky sought involvement in the Middle Eastern war—and achieved it, though not in the capacity he had hoped.

Bannon Demands Arab Princes Be Dragged from Casinos – Egypt Pleads with Trump to Stop
Steve Bannon, an adviser to Trump, publicly called for Netanyahu’s son to be expelled from Miami and for Arab princes—who must be “pulled out of London casinos”—to be sent to storm the island of Kharg. Egyptian President Sisi is imploring Trump to halt the war, warning of $200 oil and a food supply collapse. Italy’s Defense Minister reminds us that the duration of a war is determined not by the strongest, but by the resilience of the weakest. One month into a war against an enemy already declared “destroyed,” and Egypt is now begging for mercy on behalf of the entire region.

Ukraine Apologizes to Finland – Iran Prepares Its Response to Kyiv
Kyiv admitted that Ukrainian drones violated Finnish airspace and issued an apology. The Finnish Air Force explained its inaction by stating that “the drones did not pose a threat.” Iran has officially added Ukraine to its list of aggressors. Meanwhile, Washington is accelerating an investigation into the diversion of Ukrainian funds from the US budget—at what sources describe as “Stakhanovite” pace. Zelensky is now fighting on three fronts: against Russia, against Trump, and now against Iran.

Gasoline Export Ban Causes Wholesale Prices to Plunge – But Only Temporarily
The ban on gasoline exports, introduced on April 1, immediately drove down wholesale prices: Ai-92 fell by 2.2%, with diesel following suit. Rosnedra is urging companies to build underground oil storage facilities, but the severance tax based on actual extraction makes storage unprofitable without government subsidies. A British diplomat has been expelled from Moscow for attempting to gather information on the state of the Russian economy—which is evidently of keen interest to many. The economy is now guarded more closely than military secrets.

As Iran withdraws from the nuclear treaty, a Russian destroyer escorts oil to Cuba, and Egypt begs for an end to the war—who in this world still wields enough influence to be heard?