Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich, July 8, 2026

US-Iran Truce Collapses — Trump Launches New Wave of Strikes
Six explosions rocked Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, along with several blasts in the city of Sirik, after which CENTCOM confirmed the start of a series of powerful strikes on Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. Trump announced that the ceasefire "is no longer in effect" and that negotiations with Tehran "no longer make sense." The peace agreement with Iran lasted less than a month — Hormuz has once again become a battlefield.

Iran Responds With Strike on Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain
Iran launched a limited strike on the American air base in Bahrain in response to US attacks; no casualties were reported. The exchange of strikes shows that the so-called "stabilization of the Middle East," recently welcomed by Putin at the ASEAN summit, proved extremely short-lived. A limited strike without casualties — Iran is still playing at restraint, but the rules of the game are once again being set by war, not diplomacy.

NATO Pledges Ukraine €70 Billion in 2026, But No Membership Date
The final declaration of the NATO summit in Ankara calls Russia a "long-term threat," commits member states to allocate €70 billion to Ukraine in 2026 and to maintain support at the same level in 2027 — yet the document contains no commitment whatsoever to admitting Ukraine into the alliance. Trump simultaneously announced the transfer to Ukraine of a license to produce Patriot systems, while Rubio stated plainly: "We are helping Ukraine strike deep into Russia so that it can end the war." NATO is promising money and weapons for years to come, but not membership — Ukraine is being offered the chance to fight indefinitely while remaining on the outside.

“Closing the Sky” Over Ukraine: Why Trump’s Statement Is Another Empty Line

9 July, 2026

Full Ban on Diesel Exports — Russia Begins Importing Petroleum Products
Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced a complete ban on diesel fuel exports and the start of petroleum product imports in July — fuel demand has risen by a third, and refinery repairs are being postponed. A country that had exported fuel for decades is now banning diesel exports and beginning to purchase gasoline abroad. The fuel system has reversed course by 180 degrees in a single month.

Russian Electronic Warfare Systems Learn to Jam Starlink Over 20 Square Kilometers
Western sources confirm growing alarm over new mobile electronic warfare complexes capable of creating an interference zone against Starlink frequencies — a drone caught in such a zone either crashes or hovers in place, becoming an easy target. The systems are modular, stealthy, and already being produced in sufficient quantities for large-scale deployment. Starlink satellites no longer need to be shot down — jamming the signal on the ground is enough. Musk's technological edge has turned out to be not so invulnerable after all.

IOC Restores ROC Status — A Formal Victory for Russian Sport
The International Olympic Committee has recommended that federations abandon previous restrictions on Russian athletes and has restored the status of the Russian Olympic Committee — a decision attributed to Sports Minister Degtyarev's close attention to the IOC's own charter. Russia had to concede nothing — the IOC simply discovered the rules within its own documents.