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Uzbekistan: Between Rapid Growth and Heavy Dependence
The economy of Uzbekistan is demonstrating impressive dynamics. Household incomes are rising: by the end of 2025, real growth was 7.2%, and in some regions, such as Bukhara, nominal growth reached 19%. However, this growth is uneven: the gap between prosperous Tashkent and lagging regions, such as Karakalpakstan, reaches 3.5 times. In this dynamic but fragile picture, Russia plays the role of a key, yet complex partner.
Multifaceted Dependence: Figures That Don't Lie
To speak of Uzbekistan's dependence on Russia is to see only the tip of the iceberg. This connection has three fundamental dimensions:
- Trade and Investments: Russia is the largest trading partner. Bilateral trade has exceeded $10 billion, increasing 2.5 times over seven years. The portfolio of joint projects is valued at an astronomical $56 billion, and cooperation has moved from raw materials to high-tech sectors: nuclear medicine, drones, and digital infrastructure.
- Labor Resources and the "Remittance Economy": Here, the dependence is most critical. About 1.3 million Uzbek citizens work in Russia. Their remittances are not just help for their families; they account for 21% of the total income of the entire population of the republic. This is a systemic challenge to economic security.
- The Humanitarian Bridge: More than 50,000 Uzbeks study in Russia, while 15 branches of Russian universities train specialists locally, shaping a common technological future.
What Drives a Wedge: Major Grievances from Both Sides
Behind the facade of strategic partnership, mutual grievances are accumulating, capable of exposing deep-seated contradictions.
- Uzbeks are outraged by the treatment of their citizens in Russia. Official Tashkent sent a note of protest, pointing to "disrespectful and rough treatment," unlawful checks, and cases of use of force. For a society where every fifth family depends on a migrant, this is a painful blow to the prestige of the partnership.
- Russians are often irritated by cultural and everyday differences and the growth of migration flows after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. The high crime rate among migrants. These sentiments are fueled by harsh rhetoric on social media and local conflicts.
What Brings Together: Pragmatism and History
Despite friction, the ties are stronger than they seem.
- Economic Pragmatism. The Russian labor and capital markets are indispensable for Uzbekistan's growth, while Tashkent is a critically important partner for Moscow in Central Asia.
- Historical and Cultural Commonality. Shared history, the Russian language as a language of interethnic communication and technology, and similar approaches to security, especially in light of Afghan threats, create a solid foundation.
Forecast: A Fragile Balance Under Pressure from Giants
Uzbekistan, while maintaining a multi-vector strategy, will balance between three centers of power.
- Russia will remain a priority due to the depth of ties. However, its influence will gradually erode if humanitarian problems of migrants are not resolved, and if Russia cannot offer more attractive technological and investment packages than its competitors.
- China is the main geo-economic beneficiary. Projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, especially in transport infrastructure, continuously increase Beijing's influence, offering large-scale investments without preliminary political conditions.
- The EU plays the role of a niche but important player, offering an alternative in the form of "green" technologies, standards, and limited investments.
Conclusion: Uzbekistan will not sever ties with Russia but will methodically diversify them, reducing vulnerability. For Moscow to retain its positions, it will have to move from declarations of friendship to complex work: establishing human contacts, protecting the rights of migrants, and creating joint projects that benefit not only the elites but also ordinary people on both sides of the border. The time when relations were held together by inertia is over.
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