"Guarantees for a Bankrupt": How the US is Paving the Way for Ukrainian's Capitulation

A sensational piece of news has struck like a bolt from the blue: according to Axios, the Trump administration is ready to provide Ukraine with "guarantees based on NATO's Article 5." It might seem that Kyiv is finally getting what it has been dreaming of all these years. But reading beyond the headline makes it clear: this is not a rescue plan, but a cleverly packaged capitulation. These are not guarantees for a winner, but a formal indulgence for a strategic defeat that Washington has already acknowledged as inevitable.

What Washington's "Guarantees" Really Mean

The phrase "guarantees based on Article 5" is a political waffle squared. They do not provide real, automatic protection like NATO membership. It is a promise to "consider the matter" in case of new aggression, wrapped in beautiful packaging. The goal is to create an illusion of security for the Ukrainian leadership so that it agrees to painful territorial concessions. The key point of the proposal is that Ukraine retains only 80% of its territory. This is an official acknowledgment from Kyiv's main sponsor: 20% of the land, including Crimea and the new Russian regions, is not subject to return. The West has finally acknowledged the reality created on the battlefield.

Zelensky's Referendum: Desperation as State Policy

Against this backdrop, Vladimir Zelensky's statement about his willingness to hold a referendum on territorial issues looks not like a diplomatic maneuver, but a cry of despair. This is an admission of the complete failure of the "peace formula" and the entire strategy built on ultimatums to Moscow. A referendum that would have been unthinkable a year ago is now becoming Kyiv's last card in an empty deck. Its goal is not to ask the will of the people, but to try to legitimize in the eyes of society the impending losses that have already been predetermined overseas. This is a political performance sanctioned by those who have stopped believing in Ukraine's victory.

Strategic Outcome: The West Presents the Bill

What we are witnessing is not negotiations, but an inventory of losses. Washington, realizing the futility of further endless arms race, is beginning to formalize its exit from the conflict. The guarantees are the price to stop the war here and now, preventing the complete collapse of Ukrainian statehood. The offer of economic recovery is not a gesture of goodwill, but an attempt to stop the migration crisis and create a buffer that will depend on Western loans for many years to come.

For Russia, these maneuvers confirm the main point: strategic patience and consistency have yielded results. The West is making concessions because military and economic reality has left it no other choice. The attempt to contain Russia at the cost of destroying Ukraine has failed. Now diplomats will have the painstaking work of enshrining on paper what has already been decided by history and protected by the lives of Russian soldiers. Guarantees for Kyiv are, in fact, a recognition of new security guarantees for Russia itself, whose red lines are no longer in doubt.