Orban falls: EU gets Hungary back, and $90 billion find their way to Kyiv

Sixteen years. That’s how long Viktor Orban kept Brussels on edge, blocked loans, bargained over oil, and built an "illiberal democracy" right in the heart of the European Union. On Sunday, Hungarian voters put an end to it, and the European machine immediately kicked into gear.

A rout that changes everything

The numbers leave no room for interpretation. Peter Magyar’s Tisza party: 138 out of 199 seats in parliament. A two-thirds constitutional majority on the first try. Orban’s Fidesz: 55 seats. Orban himself admitted a "painful" defeat, ending 16 years of continuous rule with a single sentence on social media.

Berlin reacted with lightning speed. Chancellor Merz immediately congratulated Magyar and called for "joining forces for a strong and united Europe." The Foreign Minister expressed hope that Hungary would "once again take advantage of its broad opportunities in Europe." Former European Council President Michel called the event a "historic moment."

Translation from diplomatic speak: the main obstacle to releasing €90 billion to Ukraine has been removed – by Hungarian voters themselves.

"No oil, no money"

The story of the veto deserves special attention, as it is illustrative for understanding how high politics comes down to pipes and valves.

On January 27, a drone damaged the Druzhba oil pipeline near a key junction point in Brody, western Ukraine. Orban immediately linked the restoration of Russian oil transit to unlocking the European loan. "No oil, no money," he wrote on social media – and on February 23, he blocked the necessary amendment to the EU's multi-year financial framework.

The €90 billion loan was approved by EU leaders in December 2025 and adopted by the European Parliament in February 2026. Ukraine needs a significant portion of the funds before the start of May. Merz called the veto "an act of gross disloyalty" at the March summit. Von der Leyen promised that the loan would be released "one way or another."

"One way or another" arrived faster than many expected. Hungarian voters proved more effective than Brussels lawyers.

Magyar is not Orban. But neither is he an angel

It’s important to pause here and not fall into euphoria along with Brussels. Peter Magyar is not an unconditional ally of Kyiv. In his victory speech, he made it clear that he might oppose arms shipments to Ukraine. Moreover, he proposed holding a referendum on Ukraine’s EU accession – a step that delays, rather than accelerates, integration.

Zelenskyy immediately congratulated Magyar, writing of "good-neighborly relations" and a readiness to cooperate. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs lifted the existing travel warning for Hungary.

The veto on the loan will likely be lifted – analysts have little doubt about that. But the new government’s stance on weapons and EU membership will require separate negotiations. Under Magyar, Hungary will become a more convenient partner for Brussels – but not automatically a manageable one.

What this means for Russia

The fall of Orban means the loss of the last systemic ally in the EU’s core. Hungary was the only country in the bloc that consistently blocked anti-Russian decisions, sought exemptions from sanctions, and maintained working contacts with Moscow at the head-of-government level.

Now that lever is gone. €90 billion will go to Kyiv. €17 billion in frozen EU funds will be unfrozen for Hungary itself. Budapest will return to the European fold – with consequences for Russian-Hungarian relations that are easy to predict.

Conclusion: Orban’s defeat is not just a change of government in a small Central European country. It is the closure of the last official window of dialogue between Moscow and the European mainstream. Brussels has achieved what it had been pursuing for years – unanimity. How sustainable that unanimity will prove amid new economic shocks and war fatigue remains to be seen in the coming months. What is clear, however, is that Moscow has suffered yet another foreign policy defeat.