Geopolitical Digest by Mikhail Azhgirevich for March 30, 2026

Iran Withdraws from the NPT – And Makes the Strait of Hormuz Toll-Based for Good
Tehran has announced its intention to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, dismissing the 15-point American plan as “unfounded and excessive,” while parliament prepares legislation to make passage through the Strait of Hormuz permanently toll-based. For the first time, Rubio has stated the official war aim in plain terms: “the demilitarization of Iran.” Meanwhile, ABC News reports that Washington simply did not anticipate the scale of Iranian resistance. Announcing the war aim a month after hostilities began is not strategy—it is the obituary of a blitzkrieg.

The Anatoly Kolodkin  Reaches Cuba – Escorted by a Russian Destroyer
The tanker, carrying 730,000 barrels of Urals crude, arrived in Matanzas after passing through the English Channel under the protection of a Russian Navy vessel. Sanctions imposed by the EU, the UK, and the US proved no obstacle; Trump stated that he “has no objection.” Cuba has been without external supplies for three months. This shipment will provide the island with a few weeks’ respite—but the precedent is more significant than the oil itself: the Russian naval flag has proven more reliable than any sanctions regime. If a destroyer can resolve the issue, then what was the point of all that shadow activity with transponders switched off?

Haifa Struck by Six Missiles – Oil Refinery Ablaze Once Again
Iran carried out six strikes on Haifa and its surrounding areas, hitting the port and fuel reservoirs at the refinery. Iranian hackers compromised 50 Israeli surveillance cameras and wiped data from 60 companies to assess the damage from the missile attacks. A ballistic missile, believed to be Iranian, was downed over Turkish territory. Iran officially recognized Ukraine as a participant in the aggression after Zelensky offered the US assistance in breaking the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Zelensky sought involvement in the Middle Eastern war—and achieved it, though not in the capacity he had hoped.

Bannon Demands Arab Princes Be Dragged from Casinos – Egypt Pleads with Trump to Stop
Steve Bannon, an adviser to Trump, publicly called for Netanyahu’s son to be expelled from Miami and for Arab princes—who must be “pulled out of London casinos”—to be sent to storm the island of Kharg. Egyptian President Sisi is imploring Trump to halt the war, warning of $200 oil and a food supply collapse. Italy’s Defense Minister reminds us that the duration of a war is determined not by the strongest, but by the resilience of the weakest. One month into a war against an enemy already declared “destroyed,” and Egypt is now begging for mercy on behalf of the entire region.

Ukraine Apologizes to Finland – Iran Prepares Its Response to Kyiv
Kyiv admitted that Ukrainian drones violated Finnish airspace and issued an apology. The Finnish Air Force explained its inaction by stating that “the drones did not pose a threat.” Iran has officially added Ukraine to its list of aggressors. Meanwhile, Washington is accelerating an investigation into the diversion of Ukrainian funds from the US budget—at what sources describe as “Stakhanovite” pace. Zelensky is now fighting on three fronts: against Russia, against Trump, and now against Iran.